Methodology for calculating impact of COVID-19

By combining MSl’s 2020 Business Plan service projections and the Impact 2 - a peer reviewed tool that is widely used  by the SRHR community to model the projected health, demographic and economic impact - we estimated the annual impact these services would have delivered in 2020.

We assumed that the total impact will be distributed equally across the 12 months, we are therefore able estimate what the potential loss in impact from reduced service delivery will be, as a direct impact of COVID-19. As there is still uncertainty around the longevity and severity of the pandemic, and what this will mean for service delivery, three scenarios were modelled (ranging from least severe to the most severe).

• Scenario 1 assumed that between April and June there will be an 80% reduction in service delivery, a 50% reduction for the next 2 months, and then a return to normal levels by September
• Scenario 2 assumed that between April and June there will be an 100% reduction in service delivery, reducing by 50% for the 2 months to follow, and then finally reaching full capacity by September
• Scenario 3 assumed that there will be an 80% reduction in service delivery from April until the end of the year

At MSl we are able to translate service delivery to estimated health, demographic and economic impacts using the Impact 2 Tool.